The Railway Development Strategy (RDS) 2014 recently released by government, provides a blueprint for planning the future expansion of Hong Kong’s railway network up to 2031.
It is based on a consultancy review of RDS 2000, taking into account views collected in two rounds of public engagement in 2012 and 2013. Seven railway line, extension and station schemes, at an estimated total cost of $110 billion in 2013 prices, are proposed to be taken forward - namely the Northern Link and Kwu Tung Station, Hung Shui Kiu Station, Tuen Mun South Station, Tung Chung West Station, East Kowloon Line, South Island Line (West) and North Island Line.
The Combined Network by 2031 will be a more comprehensive one, with an increase in total railway length from 270 km in 2021 to over 300 km with 114 stations. Railway share of public transport will increase to 45-50 percent, and that of cross-harbour movements, highly constrained by road capacity, to 77 percent. About 75 percent of the population and 85 percent of job opportunities will be within 1 km of a railway station, releasing further development potential to support economic and social activities.
A range of factors have been carefully considered when coming to these proposals – transport demands and patterns; travel quality and efficiency; enhanced network coverage, linkages and accessibility to jobs, residential centres and social opportunities; serving key development areas and facilitating land-use planning; environmental impact; engineering and operational feasibility; and cost effectiveness. Network expansion will also help to relieve crowding and improve connectivity within the city to address wider public concerns.
Two schemes consulted upon during public engagement are not recommended for implementation before 2031 - the Coastal Railway between Tuen Mun and Tsuen Wan and the Hong Kong-Shenzhen Western Express Line (WEL). For the present planning time frame, the coastal railway, estimated to cost $65 billion (2013 prices), has only modest transport demands given the dispersed population along the coastline, thus lacking economic or financial viability.
Nonetheless northwest New Territories will see continuous growth in the coming decades, especially as the government plans to develop Lantau and Tung Chung. Depending on future planning circumstances and population changes, as well as increase in transport demands in the longer term, the need for a railway link may have to be reexamined. We will closely monitor traffic patterns and demands in the region, especially the capacity of West Rail and new road networks.
As to WEL, while there is some support for enhancing rail links with western Shenzhen, given its high cost – exceeding $115 billion (2013 prices), the cost-effectiveness of an airport-to-airport link, as originally conceived, is in doubt. However, the government is prepared to separately explore the need for and financial viability of an express rail link to Qianhai, subject to any significant changes in cross-boundary transport demand in future in tandem with Qianhai’s development.
It should be noted that RDS 2014 provides only indicative timeframes for the purpose of planning. Detailed feasibility and technical studies have to be conducted on each of the recommended schemes before the community’s support and relevant authorisations are to be sought regarding routing, environmental impact, construction and other related issues such as land resumption and clearance. Funding arrangements have to be worked out.
Some may find RDS 2014 falling short of their expectations, but others might wonder if it implies further domination of our public transport system by railway.
Let us be clear about how Hong Kong can be best served in transport terms. Our limited road capacity, resulting in increasing road congestion and carbon emissions, poses great constraints on mobility and connectivity. Our challenge is to find the means to “move millions” efficiently and reliably every day.
At present, over 12 million passengers or 90 percent of our daily patronage use the public transport system, much higher than Singapore, Shanghai, London, New York and Tokyo.
Such achievement is possible partly due to the railway-as-backbone policy implemented since the Third Comprehensive Transport Study of 1999, enabling our rail network to take up 40 percent of public transport passenger trips. Indeed MTR is rated internationally as one of the world’s safest and most reliable railway systems.
Franchised bus service still accounts for over 30 percent of our public transport system. We have been actively pursuing bus routes rationalisation to achieve better use of road space, to reduce road congestion and carbon emissions.
Railway is no doubt a capital-intensive investment. With a network already covering 70 percent of the population when current new lines are completed, further expansion will not give similar rates of return to those of previous projects connecting to large development areas not yet served by railway. So the benefits of the next generation of railways have to be evaluated in broader social and economic gains - higher quality transport service in terms of relieving crowding on existing lines and more route choices, facilitating land-use development, opening up economic and job opportunities, and promoting a greener transport environment.
Some would ask whether our construction industry can cope with a large number of capital works projects as we pursue infrastructure expansion - in transport, housing, new town development and the proposed third runway. No doubt we will need to phase project timeframes prudently lest we risk inflating contract prices. We must also overcome the shortage of labour and professional resources through pragmatic but innovative ways.
Because of the recent spate of train service incidents and rail project delays, sceptics question the MTR Corporation’s capabilities to deliver if tasked to take up the RDS 2014 projects. Taking lessons from those incidents, the Corporation is already in the course of reviews and improvements at both the governance and operational levels. Should it find it unable to take up all of the new projects, alternative implementation options will be explored.
In any case we must not let MTR Corporation’s temporary setback prevent us from taking a visionary view on the long-term public transport future of our city. Government is alive to the concern whether the Corporation will monopolize public transport. This will not become the case.
As we proceed with railway development, we will also conduct a Public Transport Strategy Study to look into important issues relating to other public transport modes so as to foster a multimodal system where buses, minibuses, taxis and ferries all have a role to play to ensure transport accessibility and choice.
Professor Anthony Cheung Bing-leung
Secretary for Transport and Housing